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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 58

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(4:51) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to TEN 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 26 for 18 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.60 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model