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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 33

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Tennessee Titans 25

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 3-R.Blankenship 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.91 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 33, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model