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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 41

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 28-J.Taylor right guard to TEN 35 for 6 yards (54-R.Evans; 99-R.Weaver).

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.33 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model