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Green Bay Packers

2-1 HC Matt LaFleur
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San Francisco 49ers

2-1 HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2021-09-26 · 20:20 ET Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 💨 Windy Spread 3.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

GB
13.4%
SF
86.6%
💨 Windy

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.210 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.488 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF defense: +0.014 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Wind 15 mph
  • GB offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

GB 17 10–24
–
SF 29 22–36
Projected margin: SF by 12 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

GB

Elgton Jenkins G Doubtful Ankle
Dominique Dafney TE Questionable Hip

SF

Kevin Givens DT Out Ankle
Jamycal Hasty RB Out Ankle
Elijah Mitchell RB Doubtful Shoulder
Arik Armstead DE Questionable Adductor
Javon Kinlaw DT Questionable Knee
Emmanuel Moseley CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 30
–
SF 28

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:11 FG GB (10:11) 2-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. GB 3 – SF 0
  • Q1 03:23 TD GB (3:23) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught on SF 1. 1-YAC GB 9 – SF 0
  • Q2 01:05 TD GB (1:05) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – SF 0
  • Q2 00:02 TD SF (:02) 5-T.Lance in at QB (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 17 – SF 6
  • Q3 07:45 TD SF (7:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 17 – SF 13
  • Q4 13:32 TD GB (13:32) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – SF 14
  • Q4 07:51 TD SF (7:51) 10-J.Garoppolo at QB. 28-T.Sermon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 24 – SF 20
  • Q4 02:43 FG GB (2:43) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. GB 27 – SF 21
  • Q4 00:43 TD SF (:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at GB 7. 7-YAC GB 27 – SF 27
  • Q4 00:03 FG GB (:03) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. GB 30 – SF 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (7:35) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (1:58) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to GB 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 16 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:58) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to SF 14, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (10:25) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 18-R.Cobb [97-N.Bosa].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (5:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to GB 13, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-81-T.Sherfield.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (6:10) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to SF 19, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 28 for 9 yards (41-H.Black).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:34) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 57 yards to GB 8, Center-46-T.Pepper. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 14 for 6 yards (49-T.Cannon).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:31) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to SF 12, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 26 for 14 yards (59-D.Campbell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 90%

    (2:43) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →