Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 65

Green Bay Packers 10 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:58) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to SF 14, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model