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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 3

Green Bay Packers 10 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:25) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 18-R.Cobb [97-N.Bosa].

The Three Options

GO +3.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.12 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 3, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model