4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.92 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model