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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 24 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.67 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model