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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
Thursday 2021-09-09 · 20:20 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 10.0 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

DAL
44.4%
TB
55.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.161 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

DAL 22
–
TB 23
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

DAL

No players on the report.

TB

Jordan Whitehead S Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 29
–
TB 31

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:26 TD TB (5:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – TB 6
  • Q1 01:43 TD DAL (1:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-R.Nunez-Roches]. TB-23-S.Murphy-Bunting was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. DAL 6 – TB 7
  • Q2 09:53 TD TB (9:53) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – TB 13
  • Q2 04:25 TD DAL (4:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott to TB 10 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at TB 10. 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-A.Cooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – TB 14
  • Q2 03:21 FG DAL (3:21) 2-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 16 – TB 14
  • Q2 02:45 TD TB (2:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 81-A.Brown for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – TB 20
  • Q3 09:19 FG DAL (9:19) 2-G.Zuerlein 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 19 – TB 21
  • Q3 06:28 TD TB (6:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [6-D.Wilson]. DAL 19 – TB 27
  • Q3 00:39 TD DAL (:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-A.Cooper for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 25 – TB 28
  • Q4 01:29 FG DAL (1:29) 2-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 29 – TB 28
  • Q4 00:07 FG TB (:07) 3-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. DAL 29 – TB 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:26) 8-B.Pinion punts 65 yards to DAL 2, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 15 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 41%

    (9:42) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to TB 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 15 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 27%

    (14:53) 8-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to DAL 8, Center-97-Z.Triner. 1-C.Wilson to DAL 11 for 3 yards (48-G.Stuard). PENALTY on DAL-25-N.Wright, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 10.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:55) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to TB 46, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 85-J.Mickens to DAL 30 for 24 yards (32-C.Clement). PENALTY on TB-26-A.Adams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 40.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 95%

    (6:41) 2-G.Zuerlein 31 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 93%

    (3:21) 2-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (9:19) 2-G.Zuerlein 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:54) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to DAL 13, Center-97-Z.Triner. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 25 for 12 yards (51-K.Minter; 43-R.Cockrell).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 33%

    (12:00) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to DAL 6, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:05) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to TB 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 85-J.Mickens to TB 37 for 7 yards (1-C.Wilson).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 76%

    (1:29) 2-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (:07) 3-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.