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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 13

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 2-G.Zuerlein 31 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.12 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP