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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 15 at the 44
Dallas Cowboys 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0
What Actually Happened
(9:42) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to TB 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.92 EP
-
26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.92 EP
- 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.66 EP
KICK
-1.14 EP
- 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 59% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT
-0.52 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
