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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – Dallas Cowboys 29

What Actually Happened

(:07) 3-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +1.99 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 18, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.06 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model