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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 8-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to DAL 8, Center-97-Z.Triner. 1-C.Wilson to DAL 11 for 3 yards (48-G.Stuard). PENALTY on DAL-25-N.Wright, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.78 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model