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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2020-02-02 · 18:30 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

SF
46.6%
KC
53.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.224 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • SF offense: +0.143 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.238 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.142 EPA/dropback
  • KC defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 23
–
KC 25
Projected margin: KC by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 21

SF

No players on the report.

KC

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 21 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 20
–
KC 31

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:02 FG SF (8:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 3 – KC 0
  • Q1 00:36 TD KC (:36) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – KC 6
  • Q2 09:36 FG KC (9:36) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. SF 3 – KC 10
  • Q2 05:13 TD SF (5:13) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – KC 10
  • Q3 09:34 FG SF (9:34) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 13 – KC 10
  • Q3 02:40 TD SF (2:40) 31-R.Mostert right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 19 – KC 10
  • Q4 06:17 TD KC (6:17) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – KC 16
  • Q4 02:50 TD KC (2:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 26-Dam.Williams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SF 20 – KC 23
  • Q4 01:20 TD KC (1:20) 26-Dam.Williams left end for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – KC 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (14:05) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to SF 18, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-R.James Jr. MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 18. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 18 for no gain (13-B.Pringle).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 90%

    (8:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%

    (1:57) Direct snap to 26-Dam.Williams. 26-Dam.Williams up the middle to SF 1 for 4 yards (29-J.Tartt).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 91%

    (11:04) (Shotgun) 26-Dam.Williams right end ran ob at SF 16 for 3 yards (29-J.Tartt).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

    (9:36) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 13 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 22%

    (1:08) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 85%

    (9:34) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:01) (Punt formation) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to KC 17, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:18) (Punt formation) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to KC 35, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 26%

    (1:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 42 for -9 yards (55-F.Clark).