Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 51

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(1:08) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.31 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.26 EP

KICK -0.95 EP

29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
71% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model