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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 13

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:36) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.62 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model