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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 49

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(1:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 42 for -9 yards (55-F.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.50 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model