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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:05) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to SF 18, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-R.James Jr. MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 18. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 18 for no gain (13-B.Pringle).

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.52 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP