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New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Bill Callahan
Sunday 2019-12-22 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

NYG
47.9%
WAS
52.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to NYG: Dwayne Haskins (WAS) -0.250 vs Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.142 EPA/dropback (NYG starting Daniel Jones in place of Eli Manning)
  • WAS defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 21
–
WAS 22
Projected margin: WAS by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

NYG

Rhett Ellison TE Out Concussion

WAS

Quinton Dunbar CB Out Hamstring
Fabian Moreau CB Doubtful Hamstring
Landon Collins S Questionable Achilles

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 41
–
WAS 35

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 33 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:27 TD NYG (12:27) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 87-S.Shepard for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – WAS 0
  • Q1 07:44 TD WAS (7:44) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short left to 15-S.Sims for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – WAS 6
  • Q1 06:58 TD NYG (6:58) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – WAS 7
  • Q2 15:00 TD WAS (15:00) 66-T.Bergstrom reported in as eligible. 7-D.Haskins pass short left to 88-H.Hentges for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-L.Williams]. NYG 14 – WAS 13
  • Q2 09:23 TD NYG (9:23) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 26-S.Barkley for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 20 – WAS 14
  • Q2 00:44 TD NYG (:44) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 12-C.Latimer for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 27 – WAS 14
  • Q3 06:43 TD WAS (6:43) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short middle to 15-S.Sims for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 28 – WAS 20
  • Q3 03:43 TD NYG (3:43) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 82-K.Smith for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 34 – WAS 21
  • Q4 14:34 TD WAS (14:34) 66-T.Bergstrom reported in as eligible. 26-A.Peterson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 35 – WAS 27
  • Q4 00:37 TD WAS (:37) 66-T.Bergstrom reported in as eligible. 8-C.Keenum scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYG 35 – WAS 34
  • Q5 04:19 TD NYG (4:19) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 82-K.Smith for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 41 – WAS 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 8 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 50%

    (5:48) 5-T.Way punts 31 yards to NYG 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (3:58) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to WAS 19, Center-69-C.Holba, fair catch by 15-S.Sims.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:28) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to NYG 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-D.Scott to NYG 27 for -1 yards (30-T.Apke).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 16 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:58) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to NYG 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-D.Scott to NYG 17 for 7 yards (39-J.Reaves).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to WAS 40, Center-69-C.Holba, out of bounds.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:16) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to NYG 23, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-88-H.Hentges.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 15 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:44) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 54-N.Orchard, Center-69-C.Holba, recovered by NYG-39-E.Penny at NYG 17. 39-E.Penny to NYG 17 for no gain (50-C.Odom).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 65%

    (11:25) 2-A.Rosas 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-C.Holba, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 17 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (9:38) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to NYG 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to WAS 1, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG-17-C.Core.