Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 72

New York Giants 35 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(14:44) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 54-N.Orchard, Center-69-C.Holba, recovered by NYG-39-E.Penny at NYG 17. 39-E.Penny to NYG 17 for no gain (50-C.Odom).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.04 EP
72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model