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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 41

Washington Commanders 14 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 5-T.Way punts 31 yards to NYG 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.90 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model