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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 54

New York Giants 35 – Washington Commanders 28

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to WAS 1, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG-17-C.Core.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.71 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 54, worth -2.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model