Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 69

Washington Commanders 21 – New York Giants 35

(2:16) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to NYG 23, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-88-H.Hentges.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model