Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ARI defense: +0.114 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- CLE offense: -0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- QB edge to CLE: Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.009 vs Baker Mayfield (CLE) -0.007 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
CLE
ARI
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:15 TD ARI (10:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-K.Drake left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – ARI 6
- Q2 12:06 TD ARI (12:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-K.Drake up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – ARI 13
- Q2 07:58 TD CLE (7:58) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb left tackle for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – ARI 14
- Q2 04:39 FG CLE (4:39) 4-A.Seibert 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 10 – ARI 14
- Q2 00:31 TD ARI (:31) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 82-D.Arnold for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – ARI 20
- Q3 08:59 TD CLE (8:59) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 83-R.Seals-Jones for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – ARI 21
- Q3 01:45 TD ARI (1:45) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 17 – ARI 27
- Q4 07:31 TD ARI (7:31) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake up the middle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 17 – ARI 34
- Q4 05:21 FG ARI (5:21) 5-Z.Gonzalez 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. CLE 17 – ARI 38
- Q4 01:24 TD CLE (1:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 83-R.Seals-Jones for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 23 – ARI 38
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 42%
(2:12) 4-A.Lee punts 31 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 25-D.Hilliard.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(:33) 7-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to ARI 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 33 for -2 yards (55-T.Davis).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 85%
(4:39) 4-A.Seibert 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 26Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 85%
(2:12) 41-K.Drake up the middle to CLE 23 for 3 yards (91-E.Ankou).
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Q3 ARI 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(6:26) 4-A.Lee punts 48 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 23 for 9 yards (29-C.Edmonds).
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Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(4:54) 7-J.Gillan punts 35 yards to ARI 39, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 27Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 84%
(12:09) 4-A.Seibert 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%
(5:21) 5-Z.Gonzalez 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 12 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%
(1:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham to ARI 1 for 11 yards (58-J.Hicks).