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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 26

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 41-K.Drake up the middle to CLE 23 for 3 yards (91-E.Ankou).

The Three Options

GO +2.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.28 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model