Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Cleveland Browns 17

(6:26) 4-A.Lee punts 48 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 23 for 9 yards (29-C.Edmonds).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.35 EP
61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 62, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model