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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 12

Cleveland Browns 17 – Arizona Cardinals 38

What Actually Happened

(1:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham to ARI 1 for 11 yards (58-J.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.75 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP