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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 26

Cleveland Browns 7 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 4-A.Seibert 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.50 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model