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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Freddie Kitchens
Sunday 2019-12-08 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 💨 Windy Spread 6.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

CIN
37.0%
CLE
63.0%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: -0.155 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph
  • QB edge to CIN: Baker Mayfield (CLE) -0.042 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) -0.052 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CIN 19
–
CLE 22
Projected margin: CLE by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

CIN

A.J. Green WR Out Ankle
Sam Hubbard DE Out Knee
Drew Sample TE Out Ankle
Brandon Wilson S Out Hand

CLE

Robert Jackson CB Out Ankle
Eric Murray S Doubtful Knee
Olivier Vernon DE Questionable Knee
Demetrius Harris TE Questionable Shoulder
Christopher Hubbard T Questionable Knee
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 19
–
CLE 27

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:00 FG CIN (11:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – CLE 0
  • Q1 05:46 TD CLE (5:46) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 19-A.Tate INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE 39. 21-D.Ward for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – CLE 6
  • Q1 01:41 FG CIN (1:41) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 6 – CLE 7
  • Q2 12:10 TD CIN (12:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 12 – CLE 7
  • Q2 06:44 TD CLE (6:44) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – CLE 13
  • Q3 12:14 TD CLE (12:14) 27-K.Hunt left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – CLE 20
  • Q3 04:43 FG CIN (4:43) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 16 – CLE 21
  • Q3 00:20 FG CLE (:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CIN 16 – CLE 24
  • Q4 01:09 FG CLE (1:09) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CIN 16 – CLE 27
  • Q4 00:16 FG CIN (:16) 4-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 19 – CLE 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 13 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%

    (11:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 15 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 80%

    (1:41) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:07) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to CLE 44, Center-46-C.Harris. 25-D.Hilliard to CIN 46 for 10 yards (29-T.McRae; 82-C.Carter).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 19%

    (4:03) 7-J.Gillan punts 29 yards to CIN 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 22%

    (1:51) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to CLE 2, Center-46-C.Harris. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 8 for 6 yards (55-L.Reynolds).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:11) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to CIN 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 24-D.Phillips to CIN 40 for 7 yards (57-A.Taylor; 25-D.Hilliard). PENALTY on CIN-17-S.Morgan, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CIN 33.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (5:52) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right guard to CLE 2 for 1 yard (21-D.Ward; 53-J.Schobert).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (4:43) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 59%

    (:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (7:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton up the middle to CLE 2 for 2 yards (38-T.Carrie; 97-P.Gustin).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 95%

    (1:09) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.