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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 51

Cleveland Browns 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 7-J.Gillan punts 29 yards to CIN 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.62 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model