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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 49

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to CLE 2, Center-46-C.Harris. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 8 for 6 yards (55-L.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.55 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP