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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 10

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(4:43) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.53 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 10, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model