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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 4

Cincinnati Bengals 16 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(7:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton up the middle to CLE 2 for 2 yards (38-T.Carrie; 97-P.Gustin).

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 4, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model