Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.296 vs Derek Carr (LV) +0.135 EPA/dropback
- LV offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- KC on 6 more days rest than LV
- LV defense: +0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- Wind 20 mph
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 13
KC
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 29 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:32 TD KC (7:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 31-D.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – KC 6
- Q2 06:37 TD KC (6:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – KC 13
- Q2 03:52 TD KC (3:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 16-T.Williams INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Thornhill at LV 46. 22-J.Thornhill for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – KC 20
- Q3 12:08 FG KC (12:08) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. OAK 0 – KC 24
- Q3 06:56 TD KC (6:56) 25-L.McCoy left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – KC 30
- Q4 15:00 FG LV (15:00) 8-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. OAK 3 – KC 31
- Q4 05:29 TD KC (5:29) 34-D.Thompson right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 3 – KC 37
- Q4 00:45 TD LV (:45) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 85-D.Carrier for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 9 – KC 38
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 15Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 93%
(5:24) (Shotgun) 31-D.Williams left guard to LV 15 for no gain (90-J.Hankins).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LV 4th & 8 at the 38Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 47%
(:48) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to KC 2, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-35-C.Riley.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 KC 4th & 14 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(12:53) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to LV 27, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 42%
(9:58) 11-T.Davis right end to KC 40 for no gain (22-J.Thornhill).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LV 4th & 17 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 78%
(1:09) 8-D.Carlson 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 KC 4th & 15 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(:07) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to LV 29, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-T.Davis to LV 32 for 3 yards (12-G.Dieter; 41-J.Winchester).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 32Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EPp(convert) 59% p(FG) 64%
(12:08) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LV 4th & 13 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(9:12) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to KC 36, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 42%
(2:50) 45-A.Ingold right guard to KC 36 for 4 yards (53-A.Hitchens).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%
(15:00) 8-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
See the full breakdown →
