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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 1 at the 40
Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7
What Actually Happened
(9:58) 11-T.Davis right end to KC 40 for no gain (22-J.Thornhill).
The Three Options
GO
+1.68 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.33 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -2.13 EP
KICK
-0.95 EP
- 42% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
- 58% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT
-0.33 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
