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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 26

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 8-D.Carlson 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.89 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model