Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(:07) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to LV 29, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-T.Davis to LV 32 for 3 yards (12-G.Dieter; 41-J.Winchester).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.32 EP
69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -2.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model