Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 68

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(12:53) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to LV 27, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.64 EP
68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model