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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2019-12-01 · 20:20 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

NE
43.2%
HOU
56.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE defense: -0.321 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NE offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • HOU offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Deshaun Watson (HOU): +0.129 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU on 3 more days rest than NE

Predicted Final Score

NE 24
–
HOU 25
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

NE

Ryan Izzo TE Out Illness
Kyle Van Noy LB Questionable Illness
Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Knee
Marcus Cannon T Questionable Illness
Patrick Chung S Questionable Illness
Jamie Collins LB Questionable Illness
Byron Cowart DT Questionable Head
Phillip Dorsett WR Questionable Concussion
Nate Ebner S Questionable Ankle
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Shoulder
Jermaine Eluemunor G Questionable Illness
Stephon Gilmore CB Questionable Illness
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Illness
Jason McCourty CB Questionable Groin
Mohamed Sanu WR Questionable Ankle
Matt Slater WR Questionable Hamstring
Joejuan Williams CB Questionable Illness
Isaiah Wynn T Questionable Illness

HOU

Carlos Watkins DE Out Hamstring
Tytus Howard T Doubtful Knee
Angelo Blackson DE Questionable Shoulder
Gareon Conley CB Questionable Hip
Brennan Scarlett LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 22
–
HOU 28

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:07 FG NE (7:07) 5-K.Forbath 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 3 – HOU 0
  • Q1 00:45 TD HOU (:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 25-D.Johnson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – HOU 6
  • Q2 06:26 TD HOU (6:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 87-D.Fells for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – HOU 13
  • Q3 05:49 TD HOU (5:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 12-K.Stills for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – HOU 20
  • Q3 00:17 TD NE (:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – HOU 21
  • Q4 09:58 TD HOU (9:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Hopkins pass short right to 4-D.Watson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [27-J.Jackson]. Watson hands to Johnson, Johnson hands to Hopkins, Hopkins pitches the ball forward from the 7 to the 6, received by Watson who carries it in for the touchdown. NE 9 – HOU 27
  • Q4 03:49 TD NE (3:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 28-J.White for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-D.Reader]. NE 15 – HOU 28
  • Q4 00:55 TD NE (:55) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 11-J.Edelman for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 21 – HOU 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:12) 9-B.Anger punts 49 yards to NE 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu. Punt Hangtime: 4.5s

  • Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (7:07) 5-K.Forbath 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 12 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:58) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to NE 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-M.Sanu pushed ob at NE 19 for 6 yards (52-B.Mingo). Punt Hangtime: 3.88s

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:23) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to HOU 14, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-D.Carter pushed ob at HOU 26 for 12 yards (51-J.Bentley). PENALTY on HOU-38-G.Howell, Illegal Blindside Block, 12 yards, enforced at HOU 24. Punt Hangtime: 4.32s

  • Q2 NE 4th & 11 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%

    (2:35) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to HOU 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-D.Carter. Punt Hangtime: 4.25s

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:12) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to NE 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu. Punt Hangtime: 4.59s

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 60%

    (:26) 7-J.Bailey punts 34 yards to HOU 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE. Punt Hangtime: 4.63s

  • Q3 NE 4th & 16 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:45) 7-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to HOU 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-D.Carter to HOU 31 for 14 yards (43-N.Ebner, 49-J.Cardona). Punt Hangtime: 4.44s

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (10:55) 9-B.Anger punts 56 yards to NE 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu. Punt Hangtime: 4.47s

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 52%

    (7:14) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 14-M.Sanu (24-J.Joseph).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 17 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%

    (4:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-P.Dorsett to HOU 11 for 6 yards (32-L.Johnson). Houston challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 11 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 50%

    (2:44) 9-B.Anger punts 37 yards to NE 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-35-K.Crossen. Punt Hangtime: 4.09s