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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 52

New England Patriots 3 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to HOU 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-D.Carter. Punt Hangtime: 4.25s

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.07 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model