Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 55

New England Patriots 3 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to HOU 14, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-D.Carter pushed ob at HOU 26 for 12 yards (51-J.Bentley). PENALTY on HOU-38-G.Howell, Illegal Blindside Block, 12 yards, enforced at HOU 24. Punt Hangtime: 4.32s

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.63 EP
60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model