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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 54

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to NE 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-M.Sanu pushed ob at NE 19 for 6 yards (52-B.Mingo). Punt Hangtime: 3.88s

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.15 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model