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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 63

Houston Texans 14 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 9-B.Anger punts 56 yards to NE 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu. Punt Hangtime: 4.47s

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model