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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2019-11-24 · 16:05 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

JAX
42.2%
TEN
57.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to JAX: Ryan Tannehill (TEN) -0.108 vs Nick Foles (JAX) +0.132 EPA/dropback
  • JAX offense: -0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • TEN on 7 more days rest than JAX

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21
–
TEN 23
Projected margin: TEN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

JAX

Seth DeValve TE Out Oblique

TEN

Kevin Pamphile G Doubtful Knee
Delanie Walker TE Doubtful Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 20
–
TEN 42

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 06:39 TD TEN (6:39) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles right end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – TEN 6
  • Q2 01:55 FG JAX (1:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – TEN 7
  • Q3 13:16 TD TEN (13:16) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 71-D.Kelly for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – TEN 13
  • Q3 10:51 TD TEN (10:51) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – TEN 20
  • Q3 10:30 TD TEN (10:30) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – TEN 27
  • Q3 07:07 TD TEN (7:07) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – TEN 34
  • Q3 02:26 TD JAX (2:26) (Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – TEN 35
  • Q4 11:52 TD JAX (11:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 17 – TEN 35
  • Q4 09:54 TD TEN (9:54) 17-R.Tannehill right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 17 – TEN 41
  • Q4 04:53 FG JAX (4:53) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 20 – TEN 42

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 48%

    (5:30) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to JAX 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-30-C.Milton.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:04) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to TEN 36, Center-46-M.Orzech. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 37 for 1 yard (13-M.Walker).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:51) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-M.Orzech. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 27 for 21 yards (52-N.Goode; 26-J.Wilson).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 13 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 73%

    (1:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:18) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to JAX 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 21 for -1 yards (29-D.Cruikshank).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:22) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:59) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to TEN 26, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (8:31) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 2 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 96%

    (2:56) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass short left to 27-L.Fournette to TEN 1 for 9 yards (90-D.Jones).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 20 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 71%

    (4:53) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (4:20) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to JAX 33, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 29 for -4 yards. Pass back to 84-K.Cole to JAX 29 for no gain (37-A.Hooker).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 71%

    (1:44) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles sacked at TEN 38 for -6 yards (54-R.Evans).