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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:51) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-M.Orzech. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 27 for 21 yards (52-N.Goode; 26-J.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.80 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model