Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 82

Tennessee Titans 42 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(4:20) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to JAX 33, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 29 for -4 yards. Pass back to 84-K.Cole to JAX 29 for no gain (37-A.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.45 EP
45% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 82, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model