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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(8:31) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP