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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 41

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:30) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to JAX 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-30-C.Milton.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.95 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -1.71 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model