Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- GB offense: +0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.168 vs Kyle Allen (CAR) -0.012 EPA/dropback (CAR starting Kyle Allen in place of Cam Newton)
- CAR offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- GB defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 10
CAR
GB
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:22 TD CAR (7:22) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 10-C.Samuel for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – GB 0
- Q1 03:39 TD GB (3:39) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – GB 6
- Q2 15:00 FG CAR (15:00) 4-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 10 – GB 7
- Q2 09:29 TD GB (9:29) 33-A.Jones right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – GB 13
- Q3 11:54 TD GB (11:54) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – GB 20
- Q3 01:26 FG GB (1:26) 2-M.Crosby 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. CAR 10 – GB 24
- Q4 12:02 TD CAR (12:02) 22-C.McCaffrey right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – GB 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 47%
(11:50) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to GB 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 27-T.Smith.
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Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58%
(9:59) 6-J.Scott punts 36 yards to CAR 47, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 12-D.Moore.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 13 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 72%
(15:00) 4-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
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Q2 GB 4th & 12 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(13:28) 6-J.Scott punts 32 yards to CAR 45, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 14 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 32%
(5:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. PENALTY on GB-55-Z.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 20.
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Q3 GB 4th & 16 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 78%
(1:26) 2-M.Crosby 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
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Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 30%
(9:24) 6-J.Scott punts 41 yards to CAR 8, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 12-D.Moore.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 19 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(6:41) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to GB 42, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-C.Jones.
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Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 43 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 45%
(2:32) 6-J.Scott punts 32 yards to CAR 11, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 12-D.Moore.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 25 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.66 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 85%
(:56) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 12-D.Moore to GB 13 for 12 yards (38-T.Williams).