4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 48

Carolina Panthers 10 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. PENALTY on GB-55-Z.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.54 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.87 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model